What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Aston Villa lead in both underlying performance and recent points.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Manchester United -0.60, Aston Villa -0.33.
- Points per game over the last five: Manchester United 0.60, Aston Villa 2.00.
- Attack: Manchester United xG per match 1.17, 17.6 shots, 1.2 big chances created; Aston Villa xG per match 1.47, 12.5 shots, 2.5 big chances created.
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Manchester United 1.77, Aston Villa 1.80; shots on target faced 6.4 vs 9.2, big chances faced 3.4 vs 3.2.
- Running: Manchester United 111.9 km, Aston Villa 112.2 km; sprints 103 vs 110.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Shots faced per match
10.4
vs 16.8
· Edge 37.9%
Shots on target faced per match
6.4
vs 9.2
· Edge 30.8%
Shots per match
17.6
vs 12.5
· Edge 29.0%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Points per game
2.00
vs 0.60
· Edge 70.0%
Goals per match
1.80
vs 0.60
· Edge 66.7%
Big chances created per match
2.5
vs 1.2
· Edge 52.0%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Manchester United
|
Metric |
Aston Villa
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 0.60 | Points per game | 2.00 |
| 0.60 | Goals per match | 1.80 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per match | 1.40 |
| 0.95 | Expected points per game | 1.21 |
| Attack | ||
| 1.17 | xG per match | 1.47 |
| 17.6 | Shots per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 12.5 |
| 10.6 | Shots on target per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 9.0 |
| 1.2 | Big chances created per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 2.5 |
| 53.0% | Possession 5 / 4 matches with data | 48.0% |
| 9.0 | Deep completions per match | 7.8 |
| Defence | ||
| 1.77 | xGA per match | 1.80 |
| 10.4 | Shots faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 16.8 |
| 6.4 | Shots on target faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 9.2 |
| 3.4 | Big chances faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 3.2 |
| 4.6 | Deep completions allowed per match | 9.6 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| 111.9 km | Distance covered per match (km) 5 / 4 matches with data | 112.2 km |
| 103 | Sprints per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 110 |
| 24.4 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 19.2 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Manchester United 5
- Benjamin Sesko Injury Expected back early January 2027
- Luke Shaw Injury Expected return: A few days
- Manuel Ugarte Injury Expected back early April 2027
- Marcus Rashford Injury Doubtful
- Patrick Dorgu Injury Expected back late October 2026
Aston Villa 3
- Aaron Wan-Bissaka Injury Expected back mid November 2026
- Amadou Onana Injury Expected back mid April 2027
- Matteo Ruggeri Injury Expected back mid December 2026
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.