Manchester United vs Aston Villa: what the data says

Match data Moderate evidence Premier League Insight date · 2026-10-30 2026-11-08 ~ 2026-11-08

What is worth noting before kickoff?

What this page answers

A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.

The takeaway

Aston Villa lead in both underlying performance and recent points.

  • Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Manchester United -0.60, Aston Villa -0.33.
  • Points per game over the last five: Manchester United 0.60, Aston Villa 2.00.
  • Attack: Manchester United xG per match 1.17, 17.6 shots, 1.2 big chances created; Aston Villa xG per match 1.47, 12.5 shots, 2.5 big chances created.
  • Defence: expected goals conceded per match Manchester United 1.77, Aston Villa 1.80; shots on target faced 6.4 vs 9.2, big chances faced 3.4 vs 3.2.
  • Running: Manchester United 111.9 km, Aston Villa 112.2 km; sprints 103 vs 110.

Each team's clearest edge

Home edge
Shots faced per match 10.4 vs 16.8 · Edge 37.9%
Shots on target faced per match 6.4 vs 9.2 · Edge 30.8%
Shots per match 17.6 vs 12.5 · Edge 29.0%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Away edge
Points per game 2.00 vs 0.60 · Edge 70.0%
Goals per match 1.80 vs 0.60 · Edge 66.7%
Big chances created per match 2.5 vs 1.2 · Edge 52.0%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Head-to-head data

Manchester United Metric Aston Villa
Results
0.60 Points per game 2.00
0.60 Goals per match 1.80
1.40 Goals conceded per match 1.40
0.95 Expected points per game 1.21
Attack
1.17 xG per match 1.47
17.6 Shots per match 5 / 4 matches with data 12.5
10.6 Shots on target per match 5 / 4 matches with data 9.0
1.2 Big chances created per match 5 / 4 matches with data 2.5
53.0% Possession 5 / 4 matches with data 48.0%
9.0 Deep completions per match 7.8
Defence
1.77 xGA per match 1.80
10.4 Shots faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data 16.8
6.4 Shots on target faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data 9.2
3.4 Big chances faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data 3.2
4.6 Deep completions allowed per match 9.6
Running & pressing
111.9 km Distance covered per match (km) 5 / 4 matches with data 112.2 km
103 Sprints per match 5 / 4 matches with data 110
24.4 Pressing value (lower is stronger) 19.2

Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.

Injuries & absences

Manchester United 5

Snapshot · 2026-10-30

  • Benjamin Sesko Injury Expected back early January 2027
  • Luke Shaw Injury Expected return: A few days
  • Manuel Ugarte Injury Expected back early April 2027
  • Marcus Rashford Injury Doubtful
  • Patrick Dorgu Injury Expected back late October 2026

Aston Villa 3

Snapshot · 2026-10-30

  • Aaron Wan-Bissaka Injury Expected back mid November 2026
  • Amadou Onana Injury Expected back mid April 2027
  • Matteo Ruggeri Injury Expected back mid December 2026

Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.

Limitations

Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).

  • Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.

Was this useful?

Feedback is linked to this article only. Contact details are not required.