What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Bayern Munich have the stronger underlying attack/defence, but Atletico Madrid have taken more points recently.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Atletico Madrid +1.74, Bayern Munich +2.96.
- Points per game over the last five: Atletico Madrid 3.00, Bayern Munich 2.60, opposite to the underlying signal.
- Attack: Atletico Madrid xG per match 2.71, 21.2 shots, 4.4 big chances created; Bayern Munich xG per match 3.95, 26.2 shots, 6.0 big chances created.
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Atletico Madrid 0.97, Bayern Munich 1.00; shots on target faced 4.8 vs 7.5, big chances faced 1.2 vs 1.2.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Goals conceded per match
0.40
vs 1.00
· Edge 60.0%
Shots on target faced per match
4.8
vs 7.5
· Edge 36.0%
Shots faced per match
8.8
vs 11.2
· Edge 21.8%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Goals per match
4.00
vs 2.00
· Edge 50.0%
xG per match
3.95
vs 2.71
· Edge 31.5%
Big chances created per match
6.0
vs 4.4
· Edge 26.7%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Atletico Madrid
|
Metric |
Bayern Munich
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 3.00 | Points per game | 2.60 |
| 2.00 | Goals per match | 4.00 |
| 0.40 | Goals conceded per match | 1.00 |
| 2.31 | Expected points per game | 2.77 |
| Attack | ||
| 2.71 | xG per match | 3.95 |
| 21.2 | Shots per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 26.2 |
| 13.8 | Shots on target per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 18.5 |
| 4.4 | Big chances created per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 6.0 |
| 64.6% | Possession 5 / 4 matches with data | 65.0% |
| 12.2 | Deep completions per match | 16.8 |
| Defence | ||
| 0.97 | xGA per match | 1.00 |
| 8.8 | Shots faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 11.2 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 7.5 |
| 1.2 | Big chances faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 1.2 |
| 3.4 | Deep completions allowed per match | 4.6 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| — | Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| — | Sprints per match 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| 24.2 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 25.6 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Atletico Madrid 3
- Cristian Romero Injury Expected back in about 1-2 weeks
- Johnny Cardoso Injury Expected back in about 1-2 weeks
- Koke Injury Back in training
Bayern Munich 6
- Aleksandar Pavlovic Injury Expected back in about 1-2 weeks
- Bara Ndiaye Injury Expected back mid November 2026
- Jamal Musiala Injury Expected return: A few weeks
- Luis Díaz Injury Expected back late November 2026
- Manuel Neuer Injury Expected back in about 1-2 weeks
- Min-Jae Kim Injury Expected back in about a week
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.