What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Bayern Munich lead in both underlying performance and recent points.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Mainz 05 +0.08, Bayern Munich +2.96.
- Points per game over the last five: Mainz 05 1.20, Bayern Munich 2.60.
- Attack: Mainz 05 xG per match 2.26, 17.2 shots, 3.2 big chances created; Bayern Munich xG per match 3.95, 26.2 shots, 6.0 big chances created.
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Mainz 05 2.18, Bayern Munich 1.00; shots on target faced 9.2 vs 7.5, big chances faced 2.8 vs 1.2.
Each team's clearest edge
Away edge
Goals conceded per match
1.00
vs 2.60
· Edge 61.5%
Big chances faced per match
1.2
vs 2.8
· Edge 54.5%
xGA per match
1.00
vs 2.18
· Edge 54.2%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Mainz 05
|
Metric |
Bayern Munich
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 1.20 | Points per game | 2.60 |
| 2.20 | Goals per match | 4.00 |
| 2.60 | Goals conceded per match | 1.00 |
| 1.48 | Expected points per game | 2.77 |
| Attack | ||
| 2.26 | xG per match | 3.95 |
| 17.2 | Shots per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 26.2 |
| 10.8 | Shots on target per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 18.5 |
| 3.2 | Big chances created per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 6.0 |
| 52.2% | Possession 4 / 4 matches with data | 65.0% |
| 5.8 | Deep completions per match | 16.8 |
| Defence | ||
| 2.18 | xGA per match | 1.00 |
| 13.2 | Shots faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 11.2 |
| 9.2 | Shots on target faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 7.5 |
| 2.8 | Big chances faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 1.2 |
| 8.0 | Deep completions allowed per match | 4.6 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| — | Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| — | Sprints per match 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| 22.0 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 25.6 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Mainz 05 3
- Dominik Kohr Injury Expected back early January 2027
- Otto Ruoppi Injury Expected back early November 2026
- Silas Katompa Mvumpa Injury Expected back early January 2027
Bayern Munich 4
- Bara Ndiaye Injury Expected back mid November 2026
- Jamal Musiala Injury Expected return: A few weeks
- Luis Díaz Injury Expected back late November 2026
- Manuel Neuer Injury Expected back in about 1-2 weeks
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.