Over the last 5 matches points per game moved from 0.60 to 1.80 (+200%); the previous-season baseline is 1.42; 5 of 5 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 5 matches, points per game moved 0.60 → 1.80; goal difference per game -0.60 → 1.20. Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.12 → 0.06; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.98 per game.
Current season: last 5 vs previous 5; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal difference per game | -0.6 | 1.2 | +1.8 | +300.0% |
| Goals per game | 0.4 | 1.6 | +1.2 | +300.0% |
| Points per game | 0.6 | 1.8 | +1.2 | +200.0% |
| Expected points per game | 0.82 | 1.54 | +0.72 | +88.0% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.0 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -60.0% |
| xGA per game | 1.59 | 0.85 | -0.74 | -46.4% |
| xG per game | 0.78 | 1.14 | +0.36 | +46.1% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.38 → -0.12; finishing adds +0.26 goals per game.
|
-0.38 → -0.12
goals above expected per game
|
+69.2% | +0.26 | 46% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 8.40 → 10.50; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.19 goals per game.
|
8.4 → 10.5
shots per game
|
+25.0% | +0.2 | 34% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.09 → 0.08; at the current shot volume this adds -0.11 goals per game.
|
0.09 → 0.08
expected goals per shot
|
-11.1% | -0.11 | 19% |
Decomposition uses 4/5 current and 5/5 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.12 → 0.06; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.98 per game.
|
0.12 → 0.06
expected goals per shot faced
|
-52.5% | +0.98 | 67% |
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.59 → +0.38; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.20 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.10, opponent on-target quality -0.30.
|
0.59 → 0.38
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-34.8% | -0.2 | 14% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 12.80 → 15.00; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.27 per game.
|
12.8 → 15.0
shots faced per game
|
+17.2% | -0.27 | 19% |
Decomposition uses 4/5 current and 5/5 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -100.0% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.47 | 0.92 | +0.45 | +94.9% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
3.6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | +33.3% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is little change in schedule difficulty. Coverage 5/5 vs 5/5.
|
-0.31 | -0.41 | -0.1 | -32.6% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
19.2 | 25.4 | +6.2 | +32.3% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
56.2 | 42.75 | -13.45 | -23.9% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for -7% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.12 | 0.09 | -0.03 | -22.7% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
5.2 | 6.0 | +0.8 | +15.4% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
1.4 | 1.25 | -0.15 | -10.7% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 4/5 current and 5/5 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 4/5 current and 5/5 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.8 | 0.6 | +200% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 0.85 | 1.59 | -46% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 0.85 | 1.44 | -41% |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.4 | 1.0 | -60% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 5 matches average 1.39 xG created this season, versus 1.30 in the previous 5.
- 1.60 goals scored against 1.14 expected over the last 5 (difference +0.46).
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (466 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.