Over the last 5 matches points per game moved from 0.40 to 1.60 (+300%); the previous-season baseline is 1.13; 4 of 5 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 5 matches, points per game moved 0.40 → 1.60; goal difference per game -1.40 → 0.80. Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.37 → +1.10; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +1.47 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +1.04, opponent on-target quality +0.44.
Current season: last 5 vs previous 5; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.4 | 1.6 | +1.2 | +300.0% |
| Goal difference per game | -1.4 | 0.8 | +2.2 | +157.1% |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.6 | 0.8 | -1.8 | -69.2% |
| Goals per game | 1.2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | +33.3% |
| xG per game | 1.5 | 1.13 | -0.38 | -24.9% |
| xGA per game | 2.23 | 1.7 | -0.53 | -23.9% |
| Expected points per game | 1.16 | 1.14 | -0.02 | -1.6% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.31 → +0.15; finishing adds +0.46 goals per game.
|
-0.3 → 0.15
goals above expected per game
|
+149.1% | +0.46 | 53% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.13 → 0.09; at the current shot volume this adds -0.41 goals per game.
|
0.12 → 0.09
expected goals per shot
|
-26.9% | -0.41 | 47% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 12.00 → 12.00; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.00 goals per game.
|
12.0 → 12.0
shots per game
|
0.0% | 0.0 | 0% |
Decomposition uses 4/5 current and 5/5 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.37 → +1.10; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +1.47 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +1.04, opponent on-target quality +0.44.
|
-0.37 → 1.1
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+399.9% | +1.47 | 47% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.18 → 0.11; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +1.02 per game.
|
0.18 → 0.11
expected goals per shot faced
|
-35.6% | +1.02 | 33% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 12.60 → 16.25; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.65 per game.
|
12.6 → 16.25
shots faced per game
|
+29.0% | -0.65 | 21% |
Decomposition uses 4/5 current and 5/5 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.16 | 0.39 | +0.24 | +149.4% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
2.6 | 1.0 | -1.6 | -61.5% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
6.6 | 10.6 | +4.0 | +60.6% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +27% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.24 | 0.14 | -0.1 | -41.8% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
5.0 | 7.0 | +2.0 | +40.0% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 5/5 vs 5/5.
|
0.45 | 0.29 | -0.16 | -35.8% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.85 | 0.56 | -0.29 | -33.7% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: more aggressive pressing.
|
22.4 | 18.4 | -4.0 | -17.9% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
51.6 | 52.0 | +0.4 | +0.8% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 4/5 current and 5/5 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 4/5 current and 5/5 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.6 | 0.4 | +300% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 1.13 | 1.5 | -25% |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 2.23 | -24% |
| Non-penalty xG per match | 0.83 | 1.36 | -39% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 1.55 | 2.08 | -26% |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 2.6 | -69% |
| Expected points per game | 1.14 | 1.16 | -2% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 5 matches average 1.70 xG created this season, versus 2.00 in the previous 5.
- 1.60 goals scored against 1.13 expected over the last 5 (difference +0.47).
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (200 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.