Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 2.00 (+300%); the previous-season baseline is 1.32; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, points per game moved 0.50 → 2.00; goal difference per game -0.75 → 1.00. Goals minus expected goals moved -0.94 → +0.77; finishing adds +1.71 goals per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | +300.0% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.75 | 1.0 | +1.75 | +233.3% |
| Goals per game | 1.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | +100.0% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.0 | -0.75 | -42.9% |
| xGA per game | 1.53 | 1.08 | -0.45 | -29.4% |
| xG per game | 1.94 | 1.71 | -0.24 | -12.2% |
| Expected points per game | 1.78 | 1.84 | +0.06 | +3.4% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.94 → +0.77; finishing adds +1.71 goals per game.
|
-0.94 → 0.77
goals above expected per game
|
+181.3% | +1.71 | 64% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 15.00 → 10.50; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.58 goals per game.
|
15.0 → 10.5
shots per game
|
-30.0% | -0.58 | 22% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.13 → 0.17; at the current shot volume this adds +0.37 goals per game.
|
0.13 → 0.17
expected goals per shot
|
+27.5% | +0.37 | 14% |
Decomposition uses 2/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.22 → -0.08; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +0.14 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -0.73, opponent on-target quality +0.87.
|
-0.21 → -0.08
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+63.5% | +0.14 | 18% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.11 → 0.07; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.51 per game.
|
0.11 → 0.07
expected goals per shot faced
|
-35.5% | +0.51 | 68% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 14.50 → 13.50; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.11 per game.
|
14.5 → 13.5
shots faced per game
|
-6.9% | +0.11 | 14% |
Decomposition uses 2/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
0.41 | -0.47 | -0.87 | -214.5% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +215% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.61 | 0.1 | -0.51 | -83.9% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
9.75 | 5.75 | -4.0 | -41.0% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
1.68 | 1.13 | -0.55 | -32.8% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
6.5 | 4.75 | -1.75 | -26.9% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
3.25 | 2.5 | -0.75 | -23.1% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
52.5 | 44.5 | -8.0 | -15.2% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: more aggressive pressing.
|
27.0 | 24.0 | -3.0 | -11.1% |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.39 | +0.39 | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 2/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 2/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.0 | 0.5 | +300% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 1.71 | 1.94 | -12% |
| xGA per match | 1.08 | 1.53 | -29% |
| Non-penalty xG per match | 1.32 | 1.94 | -32% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 1.08 | 1.53 | -29% |
| Deep completions per match | 5.75 | 9.75 | -41% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 4.75 | 6.5 | -27% |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.75 | -43% |
| Expected points per game | 1.84 | 1.78 | +3% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.34 xG created this season, versus 1.65 in the previous 4; a softer schedule may be a factor.
- 2.00 goals scored against 1.71 expected over the last 4 (difference +0.29).
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (366 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.