Over the last 3 matches xG per match moved from 1.01 to 2.57 (+155%); the previous-season baseline is 1.51; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, expected goals per game moved 1.01 → 2.57. Shots per game moved 12.50 → 22.67; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.93 goals per game.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| xG per game | 1.01 | 2.57 | +1.56 | +154.7% |
| Goal difference per game | 0.67 | -0.33 | -1.0 | -150.0% |
| Expected points per game | 0.59 | 1.24 | +0.65 | +109.7% |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.67 | -0.67 | -50.0% |
| xGA per game | 2.23 | 3.14 | +0.91 | +40.6% |
| Goals per game | 2.67 | 2.0 | -0.67 | -25.0% |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.0 | 2.33 | +0.33 | +16.7% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved +1.86 → -0.57; finishing adds -2.43 goals per game.
|
1.86 → -0.57
goals above expected per game
|
-130.8% | -2.43 | 63% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 12.50 → 22.67; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.93 goals per game.
|
12.5 → 22.67
shots per game
|
+81.3% | +0.93 | 24% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.09 → 0.11; at the current shot volume this adds +0.50 goals per game.
|
0.09 → 0.11
expected goals per shot
|
+24.0% | +0.5 | 13% |
Decomposition uses 3/3 current and 2/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.08 → 0.17; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -1.62 per game.
|
0.08 → 0.17
expected goals per shot faced
|
+106.4% | -1.62 | 67% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 26.50 → 18.33; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.68 per game.
|
26.5 → 18.33
shots faced per game
|
-30.8% | +0.68 | 28% |
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.70 → +0.81; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +0.11 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -0.45, opponent on-target quality +0.56.
|
0.7 → 0.81
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+15.4% | +0.11 | 4% |
Decomposition uses 3/3 current and 2/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is a harder schedule. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
0.06 | 0.22 | +0.17 | +303.6% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +31% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.17 | 0.67 | +0.49 | +280.6% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
1.0 | 3.0 | +2.0 | +200.0% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
4.67 | 11.0 | +6.33 | +135.7% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.97 | 1.57 | +0.61 | +62.5% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
17.67 | 9.67 | -8.0 | -45.3% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
38.5 | 52.0 | +13.5 | +35.1% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
16.33 | 21.33 | +5.0 | +30.6% |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.53 | +0.53 | — |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.33 | +0.33 | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 3/3 current and 2/3 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 3/3 current and 2/3 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 2.57 | 1.01 | +155% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep completions allowed per match | 9.67 | 17.67 | -45% |
| Goals per match | 2.0 | 2.67 | -25% |
| Points per game | 0.67 | 1.33 | -50% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 2.15 xG created this season, versus 1.89 in the previous 3.
- 2.00 goals scored against 2.57 expected over the last 3 (difference -0.57).
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (415 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.