Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.25 to 1.75 (+600%); the previous-season baseline is 1.47; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, points per game moved 0.25 → 1.75; goal difference per game -0.75 → 0.25. Goals minus expected goals moved -1.12 → -0.18; finishing adds +0.94 goals per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.25 | 1.75 | +1.5 | +600.0% |
| Goals per game | 0.5 | 1.5 | +1.0 | +200.0% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.75 | 0.25 | +1.0 | +133.3% |
| xGA per game | 1.27 | 1.5 | +0.23 | +18.5% |
| Expected points per game | 1.73 | 1.54 | -0.2 | -11.4% |
| xG per game | 1.62 | 1.56 | -0.06 | -3.6% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -1.12 → -0.18; finishing adds +0.94 goals per game.
|
-1.12 → -0.18
goals above expected per game
|
+83.8% | +0.94 | 47% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.12 → 0.18; at the current shot volume this adds +0.65 goals per game.
|
0.12 → 0.18
expected goals per shot
|
+54.7% | +0.65 | 32% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 14.00 → 10.33; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.42 goals per game.
|
14.0 → 10.33
shots per game
|
-26.2% | -0.42 | 21% |
Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.02 → +0.35; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +0.33 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +1.00, opponent on-target quality -0.67.
|
0.02 → 0.35
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+1870.0% | +0.33 | 44% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 11.25 → 13.33; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.23 per game.
|
11.25 → 13.33
shots faced per game
|
+18.5% | -0.23 | 31% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.11 → 0.13; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -0.18 per game.
|
0.11 → 0.13
expected goals per shot faced
|
+12.0% | -0.18 | 24% |
Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
5.25 | 3.0 | -2.25 | -42.9% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
6.0 | 8.5 | +2.5 | +41.7% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
55.25 | 40.33 | -14.92 | -27.0% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: more aggressive pressing.
|
21.75 | 16.75 | -5.0 | -23.0% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | +20.0% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for -159% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.48 | 0.57 | +0.09 | +19.1% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.8 | 0.72 | -0.08 | -9.5% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is little change in schedule difficulty. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
0.13 | 0.12 | -0.0 | -1.6% |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.26 | +0.26 | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.75 | 0.25 | +600% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 1.56 | 1.62 | -4% |
| Non-penalty xG per match | 1.37 | 1.62 | -15% |
| Deep completions per match | 3.0 | 5.25 | -43% |
| Expected points per game | 1.54 | 1.73 | -11% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.78 xG created this season, versus 1.80 in the previous 4.
- 1.50 goals scored against 1.56 expected over the last 4 (difference -0.06).
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (426 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.