Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.75 to 2.25 (+200%); the previous-season baseline is 1.50; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, points per game moved 0.75 → 2.25; goal difference per game -0.25 → 0.75. Expected goals per shot moved 0.12 → 0.17; at the current shot volume this adds +0.79 goals per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal difference per game | -0.25 | 0.75 | +1.0 | +400.0% |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 2.25 | +1.5 | +200.0% |
| Goals per game | 1.25 | 2.0 | +0.75 | +60.0% |
| xG per game | 1.85 | 2.52 | +0.67 | +36.4% |
| xGA per game | 1.13 | 0.82 | -0.3 | -27.0% |
| Expected points per game | 1.87 | 2.22 | +0.35 | +19.0% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.5 | 1.25 | -0.25 | -16.7% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.12 → 0.17; at the current shot volume this adds +0.79 goals per game.
|
0.12 → 0.17
expected goals per shot
|
+45.6% | +0.79 | 80% |
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.60 → -0.52; finishing adds +0.08 goals per game.
|
-0.6 → -0.52
goals above expected per game
|
+13.0% | +0.08 | 8% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 15.75 → 14.75; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.12 goals per game.
|
15.75 → 14.75
shots per game
|
-6.3% | -0.12 | 12% |
Decomposition uses 4/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.11 → 0.08; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.25 per game.
|
0.11 → 0.08
expected goals per shot faced
|
-23.4% | +0.25 | 70% |
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.37 → -0.43; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.06 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -0.06, opponent on-target quality -0.00.
|
-0.37 → -0.42
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-15.0% | -0.06 | 15% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 10.50 → 10.00; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.05 per game.
|
10.5 → 10.0
shots faced per game
|
-4.8% | +0.05 | 15% |
Decomposition uses 4/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
1.07 | 1.85 | +0.77 | +72.1% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is little change in schedule difficulty. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
-0.09 | -0.13 | -0.04 | -52.9% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
7.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 | -42.9% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
3.25 | 4.25 | +1.0 | +30.8% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
8.25 | 6.5 | -1.75 | -21.2% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
24.75 | 27.0 | +2.25 | +9.1% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
51.0 | 49.0 | -2.0 | -3.9% |
|
Distance covered
From the Premier League physical feed only.
|
114.77 | 118.06 | +3.3 | +2.9% |
|
Sprints
From the Premier League physical feed only.
|
119.5 | 116.5 | -3.0 | -2.5% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for -0% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.45 | 0.45 | -0.0 | -0.7% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.25 | 0.75 | +200% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 0.82 | 1.13 | -27% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 0.82 | 1.13 | -27% |
| Deep completions per match | 6.5 | 8.25 | -21% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 4.0 | 7.0 | -43% |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 1.5 | -17% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.54 xG created this season, versus 1.49 in the previous 4.
- 2.00 goals scored against 2.52 expected over the last 4 (difference -0.52).
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (351 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.