Cagliari are getting results beyond their underlying numbers
Is the overperformance sustainable?
Over the last 6 matches, points per game (2.17) vs expected points per game (1.01): gap +1.16.
Primary driver
Over the last 6 matches, points per game is 2.17 against 1.01 expected; goals run 0.04 per game below expected goals, and goals conceded run 1.36 per game below expected goals conceded. Goals conceded run 1.36 per game below expected; goalkeeping/opponent finishing is the main reason results outrun the underlying numbers.
Current season: last 6 matches
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | — | 2.17 | — | — |
| Expected points per game | — | 1.01 | — | — |
| Points minus expected points | — | 1.16 | — | — |
| Goals minus expected goals | — | -0.04 | — | — |
| Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded | — | 1.36 | — | — |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game.
|
— | 0.24 | — | — |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
— | 0.57 | — | — |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
— | 1.4 | — | — |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: little change in pressing.
|
— | 17.17 | — | — |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
— | 2.33 | — | — |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
— | 11.67 | — | — |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
— | 39.4 | — | — |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
— | 0.16 | — | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Only 6 current-season matches are available; the gap can swing on one result.
- Finishing gaps are descriptive, not a forecast: overperformance can persist or regress.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 6 | Previous 6 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points vs expected points | 2.17 | 1.01 | +115% |
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (386 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.