Over the last 8 matches, points per game (1.75) vs expected points per game (0.95): gap +0.80.
Primary driver
Over the last 8 matches, points per game is 1.75 against 0.95 expected; goals run 0.46 per game above expected goals, and goals conceded run 0.96 per game below expected goals conceded. Goals conceded run 0.96 per game below expected; goalkeeping/opponent finishing is the main reason results outrun the underlying numbers.
Current season: last 8 matches
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | — | 1.75 | — | — |
| Expected points per game | — | 0.95 | — | — |
| Points minus expected points | — | 0.8 | — | — |
| Goals minus expected goals | — | 0.46 | — | — |
| Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded | — | 0.96 | — | — |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game.
|
— | 0.42 | — | — |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
— | 1.15 | — | — |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
— | 2.5 | — | — |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: little change in pressing.
|
— | 27.0 | — | — |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
— | 7.62 | — | — |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
— | 10.25 | — | — |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
— | 44.0 | — | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Finishing gaps are descriptive, not a forecast: overperformance can persist or regress.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 8 | Previous 8 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points vs expected points | 1.75 | 0.95 | +85% |
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (122 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.