Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.25 to 1.75 (+600%); the previous-season baseline is 1.37; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, points per game moved 0.25 → 1.75; goal difference per game -0.75 → 0.25. Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.15 → 0.07; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +1.29 per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.25 | 1.75 | +1.5 | +600.0% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.75 | 0.25 | +1.0 | +133.3% |
| Expected points per game | 0.99 | 1.79 | +0.8 | +81.0% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.75 | 0.75 | -1.0 | -57.1% |
| xGA per game | 2.08 | 0.98 | -1.1 | -52.8% |
| xG per game | 1.56 | 1.59 | +0.02 | +1.5% |
| Goals per game | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.10 → 0.12; at the current shot volume this adds +0.15 goals per game.
|
0.1 → 0.12
expected goals per shot
|
+10.8% | +0.15 | 50% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 15.00 → 13.75; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.13 goals per game.
|
15.0 → 13.75
shots per game
|
-8.3% | -0.13 | 42% |
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.56 → -0.59; finishing adds -0.02 goals per game.
|
-0.56 → -0.59
goals above expected per game
|
-4.3% | -0.02 | 8% |
Decomposition uses 4/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.15 → 0.07; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +1.29 per game.
|
0.15 → 0.07
expected goals per shot faced
|
-56.8% | +1.29 | 82% |
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.33 → +0.23; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.10 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.13, opponent on-target quality -0.22.
|
0.33 → 0.23
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-29.6% | -0.1 | 6% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 13.50 → 14.75; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.19 per game.
|
13.5 → 14.75
shots faced per game
|
+9.3% | -0.19 | 12% |
Decomposition uses 4/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
-0.27 | -0.53 | -0.25 | -93.0% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
1.75 | 2.5 | +0.75 | +42.9% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game.
|
0.24 | 0.17 | -0.07 | -28.7% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
11.0 | 8.75 | -2.25 | -20.5% |
|
Sprints
From the Premier League physical feed only.
|
110.25 | 96.25 | -14.0 | -12.7% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: more aggressive pressing.
|
20.75 | 18.5 | -2.25 | -10.8% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
1.31 | 1.18 | -0.13 | -10.1% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
6.0 | 5.75 | -0.25 | -4.2% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
57.25 | 58.5 | +1.25 | +2.2% |
|
Distance covered
From the Premier League physical feed only.
|
118.91 | 119.02 | +0.11 | +0.1% |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.25 | +0.25 | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.75 | 0.25 | +600% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 1.59 | 1.56 | +2% |
| xGA per match | 0.98 | 2.08 | -53% |
| Non-penalty xG per match | 1.59 | 1.56 | +2% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 0.98 | 2.08 | -53% |
| Deep completions per match | 8.75 | 11.0 | -20% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 5.75 | 6.0 | -4% |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 1.75 | -57% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.30 xG created this season, versus 1.52 in the previous 4.
- 1.00 goals scored against 1.59 expected over the last 4 (difference -0.59).
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (236 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.