Over the last 5 matches points per game moved from 0.20 to 2.40 (+1100%); the previous-season baseline is 1.08; 4 of 5 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 5 matches, points per game moved 0.20 → 2.40; goal difference per game -1.40 → 0.60. Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.42 → +0.52; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +0.94 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +1.02, opponent on-target quality -0.08.
Current season: last 5 vs previous 5; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.2 | 2.4 | +2.2 | +1100.0% |
| Goal difference per game | -1.4 | 0.6 | +2.0 | +142.9% |
| Goals per game | 0.6 | 1.4 | +0.8 | +133.3% |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.0 | 0.8 | -1.2 | -60.0% |
| Expected points per game | 0.92 | 1.19 | +0.27 | +29.8% |
| xGA per game | 1.58 | 1.32 | -0.26 | -16.5% |
| xG per game | 0.97 | 1.11 | +0.14 | +13.9% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.37 → +0.29; finishing adds +0.66 goals per game.
|
-0.38 → 0.29
goals above expected per game
|
+177.5% | +0.67 | 69% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.08 → 0.10; at the current shot volume this adds +0.22 goals per game.
|
0.08 → 0.1
expected goals per shot
|
+24.4% | +0.22 | 23% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 11.80 → 10.80; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.08 goals per game.
|
11.8 → 10.8
shots per game
|
-8.5% | -0.08 | 9% |
Decomposition uses 5/5 current and 5/5 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.42 → +0.52; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +0.94 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +1.02, opponent on-target quality -0.08.
|
-0.42 → 0.52
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+222.1% | +0.94 | 71% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.10 → 0.08; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.32 per game.
|
0.1 → 0.08
expected goals per shot faced
|
-19.6% | +0.32 | 24% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 15.80 → 16.40; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.06 per game.
|
15.8 → 16.4
shots faced per game
|
+3.8% | -0.06 | 5% |
Decomposition uses 5/5 current and 5/5 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -100.0% |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.16 | 0.0 | -0.16 | -100.0% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 5/5 vs 5/5.
|
0.23 | 0.06 | -0.17 | -74.7% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for -68% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.17 | 0.08 | -0.09 | -52.6% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.56 | 0.84 | +0.28 | +49.8% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
1.2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | +33.3% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
3.6 | 4.6 | +1.0 | +27.8% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
48.0 | 40.0 | -8.0 | -16.7% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
10.0 | 10.6 | +0.6 | +6.0% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: little change in pressing.
|
21.2 | 21.6 | +0.4 | +1.9% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.4 | 0.2 | +1100% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 1.32 | 1.58 | -16% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 1.32 | 1.58 | -16% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 10.6 | 10.0 | +6% |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 2.0 | -60% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 5 matches average 1.79 xG created this season, versus 1.85 in the previous 5.
- 1.40 goals scored against 1.11 expected over the last 5 (difference +0.29).
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (428 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.