Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.75 to 2.25 (+200%); the previous-season baseline is 1.74; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, points per game moved 0.75 → 2.25; goal difference per game 0.00 → 1.25. Goals minus expected goals moved -0.16 → +0.99; finishing adds +1.15 goals per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.75 | 2.25 | +1.5 | +200.0% |
| Goals per game | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | +100.0% |
| xGA per game | 1.88 | 2.61 | +0.73 | +39.2% |
| xG per game | 1.66 | 2.01 | +0.35 | +21.4% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.5 | 1.75 | +0.25 | +16.7% |
| Expected points per game | 1.27 | 1.17 | -0.1 | -8.3% |
| Goal difference per game | 0.0 | 1.25 | +1.25 | — |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.16 → +0.99; finishing adds +1.15 goals per game.
|
-0.16 → 0.99
goals above expected per game
|
+721.3% | +1.15 | 63% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.12 → 0.16; at the current shot volume this adds +0.51 goals per game.
|
0.12 → 0.16
expected goals per shot
|
+33.8% | +0.51 | 28% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 13.50 → 12.25; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.15 goals per game.
|
13.5 → 12.25
shots per game
|
-9.3% | -0.15 | 9% |
Decomposition uses 4/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.38 → +0.86; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +0.49 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -0.29, opponent on-target quality +0.78.
|
0.38 → 0.86
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+129.4% | +0.48 | 33% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 13.50 → 19.75; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.87 per game.
|
13.5 → 19.75
shots faced per game
|
+46.3% | -0.87 | 58% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.14 → 0.13; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.13 per game.
|
0.14 → 0.13
expected goals per shot faced
|
-4.8% | +0.13 | 9% |
Decomposition uses 4/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +157% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.09 | 0.65 | +0.56 | +621.1% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
0.07 | -0.12 | -0.19 | -270.4% |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.2 | 0.39 | +0.2 | +100.0% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
2.75 | 3.5 | +0.75 | +27.3% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
1.22 | 0.93 | -0.28 | -23.3% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
8.75 | 7.25 | -1.5 | -17.1% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
7.5 | 8.5 | +1.0 | +13.3% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
60.75 | 53.5 | -7.25 | -11.9% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: little change in pressing.
|
23.0 | 23.25 | +0.25 | +1.1% |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.25 | +0.25 | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.25 | 0.75 | +200% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-penalty xG per match | 1.6 | 1.47 | +9% |
| Deep completions per match | 7.25 | 8.75 | -17% |
| Expected points per game | 1.17 | 1.27 | -8% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.66 xG created this season, versus 1.60 in the previous 4.
- 3.00 goals scored against 2.01 expected over the last 4 (difference +0.99).
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (442 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.