Monza's defensive numbers are sliding
Is the defense really breaking down?
Over the last 3 matches xGA per match moved from 1.06 to 2.15 (+102%); the previous-season baseline is 1.72; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, expected goals conceded per game moved 1.06 → 2.15. Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.10 → 0.17; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -0.89 per game.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.33 | 1.0 | +0.67 | +200.0% |
| xGA per game | 1.06 | 2.15 | +1.08 | +102.2% |
| Goal difference per game | -1.33 | -0.67 | +0.67 | +50.0% |
| Expected points per game | 1.87 | 1.28 | -0.59 | -31.6% |
| Goals per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | +0.33 | +25.0% |
| xG per game | 1.74 | 2.0 | +0.26 | +14.9% |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.67 | 2.33 | -0.33 | -12.5% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.41 → -0.69; finishing adds -0.29 goals per game.
|
-0.41 → -0.69
goals above expected per game
|
-70.9% | -0.29 | 33% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 12.67 → 16.50; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.53 goals per game.
|
12.67 → 16.5
shots per game
|
+30.3% | +0.53 | 59% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.14 → 0.13; at the current shot volume this adds -0.07 goals per game.
|
0.14 → 0.13
expected goals per shot
|
-3.2% | -0.07 | 8% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.10 → 0.17; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -0.89 per game.
|
0.1 → 0.17
expected goals per shot faced
|
+74.5% | -0.89 | 52% |
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -1.60 → -0.92; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +0.69 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.43, opponent on-target quality +0.26.
|
-1.6 → -0.92
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+42.9% | +0.69 | 40% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 10.67 → 12.00; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.13 per game.
|
10.67 → 12.0
shots faced per game
|
+12.5% | -0.13 | 8% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +210% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.15 | 0.7 | +0.55 | +352.9% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
3.33 | 6.67 | +3.33 | +100.0% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is little change in schedule difficulty. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
-0.29 | -0.17 | +0.12 | +41.0% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
3.67 | 5.0 | +1.33 | +36.4% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
8.67 | 6.33 | -2.33 | -26.9% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
45.0 | 48.0 | +3.0 | +6.7% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: little change in pressing.
|
19.67 | 18.67 | -1.0 | -5.1% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
1.4 | 1.44 | +0.04 | +2.9% |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.5 | +0.5 | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 2.15 | 1.06 | +102% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-penalty xG per match | 1.75 | 1.74 | +0% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 6.33 | 8.67 | -27% |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.33 | 2.67 | -12% |
| Expected points per game | 1.28 | 1.87 | -32% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 1.73 xG created this season, versus 1.70 in the previous 3.
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (120 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.