Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.75 to 2.50 (+233%); the previous-season baseline is 1.18; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, points per game moved 0.75 → 2.50; goal difference per game -0.75 → 1.25. Goals minus expected goals moved -0.03 → +0.95; finishing adds +0.98 goals per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal difference per game | -0.75 | 1.25 | +2.0 | +266.7% |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 2.5 | +1.75 | +233.3% |
| Expected points per game | 0.84 | 1.98 | +1.13 | +134.1% |
| Goals per game | 1.0 | 2.25 | +1.25 | +125.0% |
| xGA per game | 1.75 | 0.75 | -1.0 | -57.2% |
| xG per game | 1.03 | 1.53 | +0.5 | +48.7% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.0 | -0.75 | -42.9% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.03 → +0.95; finishing adds +0.98 goals per game.
|
-0.03 → 0.95
goals above expected per game
|
+3515.0% | +0.97 | 58% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 8.25 → 13.00; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.59 goals per game.
|
8.25 → 13.0
shots per game
|
+57.6% | +0.59 | 36% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.12 → 0.13; at the current shot volume this adds +0.10 goals per game.
|
0.12 → 0.13
expected goals per shot
|
+6.1% | +0.1 | 6% |
Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.01 → -0.24; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.23 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.09, opponent on-target quality -0.32.
|
-0.01 → -0.24
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-4439.7% | -0.23 | 19% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.11 → 0.05; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.89 per game.
|
0.11 → 0.05
expected goals per shot faced
|
-54.0% | +0.9 | 74% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 16.50 → 15.67; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.09 per game.
|
16.5 → 15.67
shots faced per game
|
-5.1% | +0.09 | 7% |
Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
0.26 | -0.56 | -0.82 | -311.4% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +59% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.24 | 0.54 | +0.3 | +121.7% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.75 | 1.15 | +0.4 | +53.3% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
3.75 | 4.75 | +1.0 | +26.7% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
15.25 | 18.5 | +3.25 | +21.3% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | +20.0% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
52.0 | 46.0 | -6.0 | -11.5% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
7.25 | 6.75 | -0.5 | -6.9% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.5 | 0.75 | +233% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 0.75 | 1.75 | -57% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 0.75 | 1.75 | -57% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 6.75 | 7.25 | -7% |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.75 | -43% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.33 xG created this season, versus 1.91 in the previous 4; a softer schedule may be a factor.
- 2.25 goals scored against 1.53 expected over the last 4 (difference +0.72).
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (464 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.