Troyes's results have dipped
How deep does the dip go?
Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.00 to 0.00 (-100%); the previous-season baseline is 0.63; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, points per game moved 1.00 → 0.00; goal difference per game -1.67 → -2.00. No single factor explains more than 30% of the change; this is a multi-factor shift.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -100.0% |
| Goals per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | -1.0 | -75.0% |
| Goals conceded per game | 3.0 | 2.33 | -0.67 | -22.2% |
| Goal difference per game | -1.67 | -2.0 | -0.33 | -20.0% |
| xG per game | 1.56 | 1.29 | -0.27 | -17.0% |
| xGA per game | 2.2 | 1.83 | -0.36 | -16.5% |
| Expected points per game | 1.03 | 0.95 | -0.08 | -7.7% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.23 → -0.86; finishing adds -0.63 goals per game.
|
-0.23 → -0.86
goals above expected per game
|
-278.7% | -0.63 | 76% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 15.33 → 14.00; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.14 goals per game.
|
15.33 → 14.0
shots per game
|
-8.7% | -0.14 | 16% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.10 → 0.10; at the current shot volume this adds -0.06 goals per game.
|
0.1 → 0.1
expected goals per shot
|
-4.5% | -0.06 | 8% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 15.67 → 9.00; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.93 per game.
|
15.67 → 9.0
shots faced per game
|
-42.6% | +0.94 | 68% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.14 → 0.17; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -0.30 per game.
|
0.14 → 0.17
expected goals per shot faced
|
+23.5% | -0.3 | 22% |
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.80 → -0.94; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.14 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -1.72, opponent on-target quality +1.58.
|
-0.8 → -0.94
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-17.2% | -0.14 | 10% |
Decomposition uses 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.26 | 0.0 | -0.26 | -100.0% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is a harder schedule. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
-0.22 | -0.03 | +0.18 | +84.4% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +110% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.46 | 0.17 | -0.29 | -63.2% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
11.33 | 5.67 | -5.67 | -50.0% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
8.0 | 4.67 | -3.33 | -41.7% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
1.09 | 0.98 | -0.11 | -10.1% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: more aggressive pressing.
|
25.33 | 23.33 | -2.0 | -7.9% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
2.33 | 2.5 | +0.17 | +7.2% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
38.0 | 38.5 | +0.5 | +1.3% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 2/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.0 | 1.0 | -100% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-penalty xG per match | 1.29 | 1.31 | -1% |
| Expected points per game | 0.95 | 1.03 | -8% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 1.90 xG created this season, versus 1.29 in the previous 3; a step up in opposition quality may be a factor.
- 0.33 goals scored against 1.30 expected over the last 3 (difference -0.96).
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (159 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.