Eredivisie Round 10 2026-10-24 · 19:00 UTC finished
ADO Den Haag (home)
VS WerkTalent Stadion, Den Haag (‘s-Gravenhage)
SC Heerenveen (away)
Prediction
26% ADO Den Haag (home)
26% Draw
48% SC Heerenveen (away) Model favorite
Expected goals 1.31 — 1.7 Over 2.5 goals: 58% Both teams to score: 60%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric ADO Den Haag SC Heerenveen
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.392.25
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 1.050.67
Sample size (matches with xG data) 11
Rest days since last match 78
Matches in the last 7 days 21
Matches in the next 7 days 21
Travel to this match (km) 0145

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 42.7%%).
no season pressing baseline available for these teams

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

ADO Den Haag

  • injured Donat Barany return: Mid November 2026
  • injured Luka Reischl return: Day to day

SC Heerenveen

  • injured Dirk Proper return: Day to day
  • injured Levi Smans return: About a week

Head to head

All-time (per our source): ADO Den Haag 4 · 9 9 draws · 9 SC Heerenveen

DateHome ScoreAway
2021-03-06SC Heerenveen 3 - 0ADO Den Haag
2020-11-28ADO Den Haag 1 - 1SC Heerenveen
2020-02-22SC Heerenveen 2 - 2ADO Den Haag
2019-11-03ADO Den Haag 1 - 1SC Heerenveen
2019-03-09ADO Den Haag 2 - 3SC Heerenveen
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available