Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.85 | 2.29 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.13 | 1.67 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 3 | 4 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 15.5 | 8.8 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 4 | 4 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 110 |
What the data says
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: what the data says
Home last five: 1.60 points, 1.67 xG for, 1.51 against per game. Away: 3.00 / 2.32 / 1.53.
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Aston Villa
- injured Aaron Wan-Bissaka return: Mid November 2026
- injured Amadou Onana return: Mid April 2027
- injured Matteo Ruggeri return: Mid December 2026
- injured Modou Kéba Cissé return: Back in training
Manchester City
- injured Antoine Semenyo return: Mid December 2026
- injured Matheus Nunes return: doubtful
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Aston Villa 7 · 2 2 draws · 21 Manchester City
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Manchester City | 1 - 2 | Aston Villa |
| 2025-10-26 | Aston Villa | 1 - 0 | Manchester City |
| 2025-04-22 | Manchester City | 2 - 1 | Aston Villa |
| 2024-12-21 | Aston Villa | 2 - 1 | Manchester City |
| 2024-04-03 | Manchester City | 4 - 1 | Aston Villa |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage