La Liga Round 10 2026-10-24 · 19:00 UTC finished
Atletico Madrid (home)
VS Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
Deportivo A Coruña (away)
Prediction
80% Atletico Madrid (home) Model favorite
12% Draw
8% Deportivo A Coruña (away)
Expected goals 2.32 — 0.83 Over 2.5 goals: 61% Both teams to score: 51%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Atletico Madrid Deportivo A Coruña
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 2.151.3
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 0.820.96
Sample size (matches with xG data) 55
Rest days since last match 48
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 10.0 14.0
Matches in the last 7 days 32
Matches in the next 7 days 22
Travel to this match (km) 1373515

What the data says

Match data Moderate evidence

Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña: what the data says

Home last five: 3.00 points, 2.63 xG for, 0.65 against per game. Away: 0.60 / 1.37 / 0.95.

Atletico MadridDeportivo A Coruña
3.00 Points per game 0.60
0.40 Goals conceded per match 1.40
2.40 Goals per match 1.00

What is worth noting before kickoff?

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Atletico Madrid

  • injured Cristian Romero return: About 1-2 weeks
  • injured Johnny Cardoso return: About 1-2 weeks
  • injured Koke return: Back in training

Deportivo A Coruña

  • injured Bright Ede return: Early November 2026
  • injured Marc Casadó return: Early November 2026
  • injured Noé return: Early November 2026
  • injured Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang return: Late November 2026
  • injured Zakaria Eddahchouri return: Early November 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Atletico Madrid 10 · 4 4 draws · 0 Deportivo A Coruña

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-01-13Deportivo A Coruña 0 - 1Atlético Madrid
2018-04-01Atlético Madrid 1 - 0Deportivo A Coruña
2017-11-04Deportivo A Coruña 0 - 1Atlético Madrid
2017-03-02Deportivo A Coruña 1 - 1Atlético Madrid
2016-09-25Atlético Madrid 1 - 0Deportivo A Coruña
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available