Premier League Round 8 2026-10-24 · 14:00 UTC finished
Coventry (home)
VS Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Fulham (away)
Prediction
26% Coventry (home)
25% Draw
48% Fulham (away) Model favorite
Expected goals 1.24 — 1.55 Over 2.5 goals: 53% Both teams to score: 56%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Coventry Fulham
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.251.73
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 1.671.23
Sample size (matches with xG data) 55
Rest days since last match 57
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 23.4 11.6
Matches in the last 7 days 22
Matches in the next 7 days 21
Travel to this match (km) 136139

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 42.7%%).

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Coventry

  • injured Aurèle Amenda return: Early November 2026
  • injured Haji Wright return: Early November 2026
  • injured Josh Eccles return: Early November 2026
  • injured Luke Woolfenden return: Early November 2026

Fulham

  • suspended Ryan Sessegnon return: Late October 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Coventry 2 · 0 0 draws · 0 Fulham

DateHome ScoreAway
2022-04-10Fulham 1 - 3Coventry City
2021-10-02Coventry City 4 - 1Fulham
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available