Liga Portugal Round 9 2026-10-24 · 14:30 UTC finished
Estrela da Amadora (home)
VS Estádio José Gomes, Amadora
Casa Pia AC (away)
Prediction
51% Estrela da Amadora (home) Model favorite
26% Draw
22% Casa Pia AC (away)
Expected goals 1.53 — 1.04 Over 2.5 goals: 48% Both teams to score: 51%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Estrela da Amadora Casa Pia AC
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) ——
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) ——
Sample size (matches with xG data) 00
Rest days since last match 1314
Matches in the last 7 days 11
Matches in the next 7 days 11
Travel to this match (km) 25671

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 53.4% of the time.
no season pressing baseline available for these teams
recent form lacks xG samples, so attack/defence form is not measurable

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Estrela da Amadora

  • injured Jeremy Arévalo return: Day to day

Casa Pia AC

  • injured André Gomes return: Day to day

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Estrela da Amadora 5 · 0 0 draws · 3 Casa Pia AC

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-03-20Estrela da Amadora 4 - 0Casa Pia AC
2025-11-01Casa Pia AC 3 - 5Estrela da Amadora
2025-02-09Casa Pia AC 1 - 0Estrela da Amadora
2024-08-31Estrela da Amadora 0 - 1Casa Pia AC
2024-03-08Estrela da Amadora 3 - 1Casa Pia AC
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: unavailable Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available