Liga Portugal Round 9 2026-10-24 · 19:30 UTC finished
Gil Vicente (home)
VS Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos
FC Porto (away)
Prediction
17% Gil Vicente (home)
21% Draw
63% FC Porto (away) Model favorite
Expected goals 0.91 — 1.66 Over 2.5 goals: 48% Both teams to score: 48%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Gil Vicente FC Porto
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.521.4
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 1.351.63
Sample size (matches with xG data) 11
Rest days since last match 54
Matches in the last 7 days 12
Matches in the next 7 days 12
Travel to this match (km) 1643

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 65.0% of the time.
no season pressing baseline available for these teams

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Gil Vicente

  • injured Arthur Tchaptchet return: A few days
  • injured Mohamed Bamba return: Day to day

FC Porto

  • injured Vasco Sousa return: Day to day
  • injured William Gomes return: Mid November 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Gil Vicente 5 · 4 4 draws · 20 FC Porto

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-07-22Gil Vicente 1 - 0FC Porto
2026-01-26FC Porto 3 - 0Gil Vicente
2025-08-18Gil Vicente 0 - 2FC Porto
2025-01-19Gil Vicente 3 - 1FC Porto
2024-08-10FC Porto 3 - 0Gil Vicente
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available