Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Mainz 05 | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 2.19 | 1.39 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.02 | 1.82 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 12.9 | 18.5 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 193 | 345 |
What the data says
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: what the data says
Home last five: 1.80 points, 2.54 xG for, 1.64 against per game. Away: 1.80 / 1.57 / 1.58.
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Mainz 05
- injured Dominik Kohr return: Early January 2027
- injured Otto Ruoppi return: Early November 2026
- injured Robin Zentner return: A few weeks
- injured Silas Katompa Mvumpa return: Early January 2027
Werder Bremen
- injured Felix Agu return: Late October 2026
- injured Jens Stage return: Late October 2026
- injured Justin Njinmah return: Late October 2026
- injured Keke Topp return: Early January 2027
- injured Moussa N'Diaye return: Late October 2026
- injured Salim Musah return: Early January 2027
- injured Skelly Alvero return: Late October 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Mainz 05 11 · 7 7 draws · 12 Werder Bremen
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Werder Bremen | 0 - 2 | Mainz 05 |
| 2025-11-01 | Mainz 05 | 1 - 1 | Werder Bremen |
| 2025-01-31 | Werder Bremen | 1 - 0 | Mainz 05 |
| 2024-09-15 | Mainz 05 | 1 - 2 | Werder Bremen |
| 2024-02-03 | Mainz 05 | 0 - 1 | Werder Bremen |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage