No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.77 | 1.03 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.31 | 2.05 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 11 | 9 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 17.0 | 12.7 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 4 | 4 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 126 | 110 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Aston Villa
- injured Aaron Wan-Bissaka return: Mid November 2026
- injured Amadou Onana return: Mid April 2027
- injured Matteo Ruggeri return: Mid December 2026
Manchester United
- injured Amad Diallo return: doubtful
- injured Benjamin Sesko return: Early January 2027
- injured Luke Shaw return: Early November 2026
- injured Manuel Ugarte return: Early April 2027
- injured Marcus Rashford return: doubtful
- injured Patrick Dorgu return: Early November 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Aston Villa 5 · 13 13 draws · 42 Manchester United
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Man United | 3:1 | Aston Villa |
| 2025-12-21 | Aston Villa | 2:1 | Man United |
| 2025-05-25 | Man United | 2:0 | Aston Villa |
| 2024-10-06 | Aston Villa | 0:0 | Man United |
| 2024-02-11 | Aston Villa | 1:2 | Man United |
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
unavailable
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
available
Head to head:
available
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available