No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 0.85 | 1.29 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.79 | 1.09 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 3 | 3 |
| Rest days since last match | 4 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 17.0 | 12.5 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 377 | 70 |
What could go against this prediction
no injury / suspension snapshot available for either squad
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Aston Villa 8 · 5 5 draws · 5 Nottingham Forest
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Aston Villa | 4 - 0 | Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-04-30 | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 0 | Aston Villa |
| 2026-04-12 | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 1 | Aston Villa |
| 2026-01-03 | Aston Villa | 3 - 1 | Nottingham Forest |
| 2025-04-05 | Aston Villa | 2 - 1 | Nottingham Forest |
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
unavailable
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
unavailable
Head to head:
available
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available