No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Brighton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 2.54 | 1.71 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.76 | 0.68 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 4 | 4 |
| Rest days since last match | 6 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 7.2 | 9.6 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 0 | 0 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 202 | 459 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Brighton
- injured Evan Ferguson return: Mid October 2026
- injured Femi Azeez return: doubtful
- injured Jack Hinshelwood return: Mid October 2026
- injured Jaouen Hadjam return: doubtful
- injured Kaoru Mitoma return: Mid October 2026
- injured Mats Wieffer return: Mid October 2026
- injured Michael Svoboda return: Mid October 2026
- injured Stefanos Tzimas return: Late September 2026
- injured Yankuba Minteh return: Mid November 2026
- injured Zadok Yohanna return: Mid October 2026
Arsenal
- injured Ben White return: doubtful
- injured Cristhian Mosquera return: doubtful
- injured William Saliba return: Mid October 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Brighton 6 · 5 5 draws · 11 Arsenal
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 - 1 | Arsenal |
| 2025-12-27 | Arsenal | 2 - 1 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2025-10-29 | Arsenal | 2 - 0 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2025-01-04 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 - 1 | Arsenal |
| 2024-08-31 | Arsenal | 1 - 1 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
unavailable
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
available
Head to head:
available
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available