No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.08 | 1.89 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.79 | 1.75 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 4 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 15.2 | 11.2 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 3 | 4 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 3 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 796 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Hamburger SV
- injured Bilal Nadir return: Late December 2026
- injured Fábio Vieira return: Mid November 2026
- injured Nicolai Remberg return: Late June 2027
- injured Nicolás Capaldo return: About a week
- injured Yussuf Poulsen return: a few weeks
Borussia Dortmund
- injured Emre Can return: Mid November 2026
- injured Giannis Konstantelias return: Late May 2027
- injured Justin Lerma return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Kauã Prates return: About 1-2 weeks
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Hamburger SV 14 · 12 12 draws · 27 Borussia Dortmund
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Dortmund | 2:0 | Hamburg |
| 2026-03-21 | Dortmund | 3:2 | Hamburg |
| 2025-11-08 | Hamburg | 1:1 | Dortmund |
| 2018-02-10 | Dortmund | 2:0 | Hamburg |
| 2017-09-20 | Hamburg | 0:3 | Dortmund |
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
unavailable
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
available
Head to head:
available
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available