No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 0.91 | 1.23 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.51 | 0.73 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 1 | 1 |
| Rest days since last match | 8 | 8 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 15.2 | 12.4 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 286 | 417 |
What could go against this prediction
no injury / suspension snapshot available for either squad
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Hamburger SV 6 · 6 6 draws · 6 Mainz 05
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Mainz 05 | 1 - 1 | Hamburger SV |
| 2025-10-05 | Hamburger SV | 4 - 0 | Mainz 05 |
| 2018-03-03 | Hamburger SV | 0 - 0 | Mainz 05 |
| 2017-10-14 | Mainz 05 | 3 - 2 | Hamburger SV |
| 2017-05-07 | Hamburger SV | 0 - 0 | Mainz 05 |
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
unavailable
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
unavailable
Head to head:
available
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available