No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Mainz 05 | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.96 | 1.08 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.56 | 1.79 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 12.4 | 15.2 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 197 | 417 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Mainz 05
- injured Dominik Kohr return: Early January 2027
- injured Otto Ruoppi return: Early November 2026
- injured Silas Katompa Mvumpa return: Early January 2027
Hamburger SV
- injured Bilal Nadir return: Late December 2026
- injured Fábio Vieira return: Mid November 2026
- injured Nicolai Remberg return: Late June 2027
- injured Nicolás Capaldo return: About a week
- injured Yussuf Poulsen return: a few weeks
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Mainz 05 9 · 9 9 draws · 9 Hamburger SV
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Hamburg | 0:5 | Mainz |
| 2026-02-20 | Mainz | 1:1 | Hamburg |
| 2025-10-05 | Hamburg | 4:0 | Mainz |
| 2018-03-03 | Hamburg | 0:0 | Mainz |
| 2017-10-14 | Mainz | 3:2 | Hamburg |
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
unavailable
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
available
Head to head:
available
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available