No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Manchester City | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 2.15 | 1.62 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.08 | 1.15 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 3 | 3 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 8.9 | 9.6 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 4 | 4 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 257 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Manchester City
- injured Antoine Semenyo return: Mid December 2026
Arsenal
- injured Bukayo Saka return: Mid December 2026
- injured William Saliba return: Late November 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Manchester City 20 · 13 13 draws · 23 Arsenal
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Man City | 2:1 | Arsenal |
| 2025-09-21 | Arsenal | 1:1 | Man City |
| 2025-02-02 | Arsenal | 5:1 | Man City |
| 2024-09-22 | Man City | 2:2 | Arsenal |
| 2024-03-31 | Man City | 0:0 | Arsenal |
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
unavailable
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
available
Head to head:
available
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available