No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Manchester United | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 2.43 | 2.19 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.36 | 0.89 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 3 | 3 |
| Rest days since last match | 3 | 5 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 12.7 | 8.9 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 1446 |
What could go against this prediction
no injury / suspension snapshot available for either squad
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Manchester United 17 · 6 6 draws · 20 Manchester City
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Manchester United | 2 - 0 | Manchester City |
| 2025-09-14 | Manchester City | 3 - 0 | Manchester United |
| 2025-04-06 | Manchester United | 0 - 0 | Manchester City |
| 2024-12-15 | Manchester City | 1 - 2 | Manchester United |
| 2024-08-10 | Manchester City | 1 - 1 | Manchester United |
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
unavailable
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
unavailable
Head to head:
available
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available