No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Marseille | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.48 | 1.52 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.96 | 1.25 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 13 | 12 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 11.4 | 14.7 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 3 | 3 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 952 | 834 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Marseille
- injured Derek Cornelius return: Early January 2027
- injured Emerson return: doubtful
Lille
- injured Ayase Ueda return: a few weeks
- injured Hamza Igamane return: Late November 2026
- injured Tiago Santos return: Late June 2027
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Marseille 23 · 15 15 draws · 18 Lille
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Marseille | 1:2 | Lille |
| 2025-12-05 | Lille | 1:0 | Marseille |
| 2025-05-04 | Lille | 1:1 | Marseille |
| 2024-12-14 | Marseille | 1:1 | Lille |
| 2024-04-05 | Lille | 3:1 | Marseille |
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
unavailable
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
available
Head to head:
available
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available