No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Monaco | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.22 | 2.54 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.34 | 1.94 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 4 | 4 |
| Rest days since last match | 6 | 5 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 12.6 | 12.0 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 0 | 0 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 538 | 729 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Monaco
- injured Anis Soubeir return: Early October 2026
- injured Ansu Fati return: doubtful
- injured Folarin Balogun return: doubtful
- injured Jordan Teze return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Mamadou Coulibaly return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Stanis Idumbo return: doubtful
- injured Takumi Minamino return: Back in training
Lens
- injured Jhoanner Chávez return: Late September 2026
- injured Maik Nawrocki return: Mid May 2027
- injured Samson Baidoo return: Late October 2026
- injured Saud Abdulhamid return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Yacine Titraoui return: Late September 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Monaco 10 · 8 8 draws · 6 Lens
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Lens | 2 - 3 | Monaco |
| 2025-11-08 | Monaco | 1 - 4 | Lens |
| 2025-05-17 | Lens | 4 - 0 | Monaco |
| 2024-09-01 | Monaco | 1 - 1 | Lens |
| 2024-02-25 | Lens | 2 - 3 | Monaco |
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
unavailable
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
available
Head to head:
available
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available