No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.56 | 2.34 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.75 | 1.04 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 4 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 9.3 | 13.8 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 4 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 350 | 7 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Rayo Vallecano
- injured Álvaro Garcia return: Mid November 2026
- injured Augusto Batalla return: Early January 2027
- injured Luiz Felipe return: out for season
- injured Óscar Valentín return: Late November 2026
Real Madrid
- injured Federico Valverde return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Ferland Mendy return: Back in training
- injured Raúl Asencio return: Early January 2027
- injured Rodrygo return: Late December 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Rayo Vallecano 4 · 5 5 draws · 28 Real Madrid
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Real Madrid | 4:1 | Vallecano |
| 2026-02-01 | Real Madrid | 2:1 | Vallecano |
| 2025-11-09 | Vallecano | 0:0 | Real Madrid |
| 2025-03-09 | Real Madrid | 2:1 | Vallecano |
| 2024-12-14 | Vallecano | 3:3 | Real Madrid |
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
unavailable
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
available
Head to head:
available
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available