No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 2.99 | 1.28 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 0.83 | 1.93 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 4 | 4 |
| Rest days since last match | 4 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 13.8 | 9.3 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 7 |
What could go against this prediction
no injury / suspension snapshot available for either squad
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Real Madrid 16 · 4 4 draws · 2 Rayo Vallecano
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Real Madrid | 2 - 1 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 2025-11-09 | Rayo Vallecano | 0 - 0 | Real Madrid |
| 2025-03-09 | Real Madrid | 2 - 1 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 2024-12-14 | Rayo Vallecano | 3 - 3 | Real Madrid |
| 2024-02-18 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 - 1 | Real Madrid |
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
unavailable
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
unavailable
Head to head:
available
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available