What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Nottingham Forest have the stronger underlying attack/defence, but Manchester City have taken more points recently.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Nottingham Forest +1.12, Manchester City +0.97.
- Points per game over the last five: Nottingham Forest 0.80, Manchester City 2.40, opposite to the underlying signal.
- Attack: Nottingham Forest xG per match 2.28, 19.2 shots, 4.5 big chances created; Manchester City xG per match 2.34, 14.2 shots, 3.6 big chances created.
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Nottingham Forest 1.16, Manchester City 1.37; shots on target faced 5.5 vs 7.4, big chances faced 2.5 vs 2.8.
- Running: Nottingham Forest 115.2 km, Manchester City 111.2 km; sprints 106 vs 92.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Shots faced per match
9.0
vs 12.4
· Edge 27.4%
Shots per match
19.2
vs 14.2
· Edge 26.2%
Shots on target faced per match
5.5
vs 7.4
· Edge 25.7%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Goals per match
2.60
vs 0.80
· Edge 69.2%
Points per game
2.40
vs 0.80
· Edge 66.7%
xG per match
2.34
vs 2.28
· Edge 2.7%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Nottingham Forest
|
Metric |
Manchester City
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 0.80 | Points per game | 2.40 |
| 0.80 | Goals per match | 2.60 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per match | 1.40 |
| 2.08 | Expected points per game | 2.02 |
| Attack | ||
| 2.28 | xG per match | 2.34 |
| 19.2 | Shots per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 14.2 |
| 9.5 | Shots on target per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 9.2 |
| 4.5 | Big chances created per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 3.6 |
| 45.0% | Possession 4 / 5 matches with data | 59.8% |
| 7.8 | Deep completions per match | 9.6 |
| Defence | ||
| 1.16 | xGA per match | 1.37 |
| 9.0 | Shots faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 12.4 |
| 5.5 | Shots on target faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 7.4 |
| 2.5 | Big chances faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 2.8 |
| 6.0 | Deep completions allowed per match | 6.0 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| 115.2 km | Distance covered per match (km) 4 / 5 matches with data | 111.2 km |
| 106 | Sprints per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 92 |
| 18.6 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 20.4 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Nottingham Forest 3
- Igor Jesus Injury Expected back early November 2026
- Neco Williams Injury Doubtful
- Nicolò Savona Injury Expected back early November 2026
Manchester City 2
- Antoine Semenyo Injury Expected back mid December 2026
- Matheus Nunes Injury Back in training
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.