Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.25 to 2.50 (+900%); the previous-season baseline is 1.71; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, points per game moved 0.25 → 2.50; goal difference per game -1.50 → 0.75. Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.15 → 0.10; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.75 per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.25 | 2.5 | +2.25 | +900.0% |
| Goals per game | 0.25 | 2.0 | +1.75 | +700.0% |
| Goal difference per game | -1.5 | 0.75 | +2.25 | +150.0% |
| Expected points per game | 0.65 | 1.43 | +0.78 | +119.1% |
| xG per game | 0.82 | 1.57 | +0.75 | +91.3% |
| xGA per game | 2.28 | 1.55 | -0.73 | -32.0% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.25 | -0.5 | -28.6% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.57 → +0.14; finishing adds +0.71 goals per game.
|
-0.57 → 0.14
goals above expected per game
|
+125.4% | +0.71 | 50% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 8.50 → 14.33; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.56 goals per game.
|
8.5 → 14.33
shots per game
|
+68.6% | +0.56 | 40% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.10 → 0.11; at the current shot volume this adds +0.14 goals per game.
|
0.1 → 0.11
expected goals per shot
|
+10.1% | +0.14 | 10% |
Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.15 → 0.10; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.75 per game.
|
0.15 → 0.1
expected goals per shot faced
|
-33.4% | +0.75 | 91% |
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.53 → +0.50; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.04 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.20, opponent on-target quality -0.24.
|
0.53 → 0.49
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-7.2% | -0.04 | 5% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 15.25 → 15.00; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.04 per game.
|
15.25 → 15.0
shots faced per game
|
-1.6% | +0.04 | 4% |
Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
1.0 | 2.67 | +1.67 | +166.7% |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.25 | 0.0 | -0.25 | -100.0% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.75 | 1.44 | +0.69 | +91.6% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
0.49 | 0.11 | -0.38 | -77.4% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
5.0 | 7.75 | +2.75 | +55.0% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
13.5 | 20.0 | +6.5 | +48.1% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for -4% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.1 | 0.07 | -0.03 | -32.3% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
8.25 | 9.75 | +1.5 | +18.2% |
|
Sprints
From the Premier League physical feed only.
|
100.0 | 115.67 | +15.67 | +15.7% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
48.5 | 46.0 | -2.5 | -5.2% |
|
Distance covered
From the Premier League physical feed only.
|
110.35 | 113.85 | +3.5 | +3.2% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data cover 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; running is context only and did not decide the main factor.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.5 | 0.25 | +900% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 1.55 | 2.28 | -32% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 1.55 | 2.28 | -32% |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 1.75 | -29% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.66 xG created this season, versus 1.82 in the previous 4.
- 2.00 goals scored against 1.57 expected over the last 4 (difference +0.43).
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (350 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.