Over the last 4 matches xG per match moved from 0.84 to 2.41 (+188%); the previous-season baseline is 1.81; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, expected goals per game moved 0.84 → 2.41. Expected goals per shot moved 0.07 → 0.14; at the current shot volume this adds +1.25 goals per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| xG per game | 0.84 | 2.41 | +1.58 | +188.5% |
| Expected points per game | 0.58 | 1.39 | +0.8 | +137.8% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.5 | +1.25 | +100.0% |
| Goals per game | 1.25 | 2.25 | +1.0 | +80.0% |
| Points per game | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | -33.3% |
| xGA per game | 2.2 | 2.18 | -0.01 | -0.6% |
| Goal difference per game | 0.0 | -0.25 | -0.25 | — |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved +0.41 → -0.16; finishing adds -0.58 goals per game.
|
0.41 → -0.16
goals above expected per game
|
-139.5% | -0.58 | 27% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.07 → 0.14; at the current shot volume this adds +1.25 goals per game.
|
0.07 → 0.14
expected goals per shot
|
+106.7% | +1.25 | 58% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 12.00 → 16.75; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.33 goals per game.
|
12.0 → 16.75
shots per game
|
+39.6% | +0.33 | 15% |
Decomposition uses 4/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.95 → -0.32; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -1.26 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -0.86, opponent on-target quality -0.40.
|
0.95 → -0.32
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-133.5% | -1.26 | 63% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.11 → 0.13; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -0.36 per game.
|
0.11 → 0.13
expected goals per shot faced
|
+19.9% | -0.36 | 18% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 20.50 → 17.00; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.38 per game.
|
20.5 → 17.0
shots faced per game
|
-17.1% | +0.38 | 19% |
Decomposition uses 4/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +26% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.05 | 0.47 | +0.42 | +868.8% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
0.75 | 3.5 | +2.75 | +366.7% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.82 | 1.45 | +0.62 | +75.8% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is little change in schedule difficulty. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
0.1 | 0.07 | -0.03 | -27.0% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
16.5 | 20.75 | +4.25 | +25.8% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
6.0 | 6.75 | +0.75 | +12.5% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
48.25 | 43.5 | -4.75 | -9.8% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
8.5 | 9.25 | +0.75 | +8.8% |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.25 | 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.2 | +0.2 | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 2.41 | 0.84 | +188% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 2.18 | 2.2 | -1% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 1.8 | 2.01 | -10% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 9.25 | 8.5 | +9% |
| Points per game | 1.0 | 1.5 | -33% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.77 xG created this season, versus 1.73 in the previous 4.
- 2.25 goals scored against 2.41 expected over the last 4 (difference -0.16).
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (464 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.