Over the last 3 matches xGA per match moved from 0.67 to 2.19 (+225%); the previous-season baseline is 1.50; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 3 matches, expected goals conceded per game moved 0.67 → 2.19. Shots faced per game moved 8.33 → 18.00; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.78 per game.
Current season: last 3 vs previous 3; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals conceded per game | 0.67 | 2.33 | +1.67 | +250.0% |
| xGA per game | 0.67 | 2.19 | +1.52 | +225.1% |
| Goal difference per game | 2.0 | -0.33 | -2.33 | -116.7% |
| Expected points per game | 2.48 | 1.13 | -1.35 | -54.5% |
| xG per game | 2.61 | 1.52 | -1.09 | -41.7% |
| Goals per game | 2.67 | 2.0 | -0.67 | -25.0% |
| Points per game | 2.33 | 2.0 | -0.33 | -14.3% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved +0.06 → +0.48; finishing adds +0.42 goals per game.
|
0.06 → 0.48
goals above expected per game
|
+713.6% | +0.42 | 24% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 23.00 → 12.33; at last window's output per shot this adds -1.21 goals per game.
|
23.0 → 12.33
shots per game
|
-46.4% | -1.21 | 69% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.11 → 0.12; at the current shot volume this adds +0.12 goals per game.
|
0.11 → 0.12
expected goals per shot
|
+8.7% | +0.12 | 7% |
Decomposition uses 3/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.01 → -0.14; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.15 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -0.88, opponent on-target quality +0.73.
|
0.01 → -0.14
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-1943.5% | -0.15 | 9% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 8.33 → 18.00; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.78 per game.
|
8.33 → 18.0
shots faced per game
|
+116.0% | -0.78 | 47% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.08 → 0.12; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -0.74 per game.
|
0.08 → 0.12
expected goals per shot faced
|
+50.5% | -0.73 | 44% |
Decomposition uses 3/3 current and 3/3 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is a harder schedule. Coverage 3/3 vs 3/3.
|
-0.26 | 0.53 | +0.79 | +305.8% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
3.0 | 7.0 | +4.0 | +133.3% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +51% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.67 | 0.11 | -0.56 | -83.8% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
15.67 | 8.33 | -7.33 | -46.8% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
2.01 | 1.2 | -0.82 | -40.6% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
3.67 | 3.0 | -0.67 | -18.2% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: more aggressive pressing.
|
19.67 | 17.67 | -2.0 | -10.2% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
59.33 | 53.33 | -6.0 | -10.1% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 6 matches; using a 3-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 3 | Previous 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 2.19 | 0.67 | +225% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 1.52 | 2.61 | -42% |
| Non-penalty xG per match | 1.52 | 2.61 | -42% |
| Deep completions per match | 8.33 | 15.67 | -47% |
| Goals per match | 2.0 | 2.67 | -25% |
| Expected points per game | 1.13 | 2.48 | -54% |
| Points per game | 2.0 | 2.33 | -14% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 3 matches average 2.07 xG created this season, versus 1.97 in the previous 3.
Limitations
Based on 6 recent matches (6 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (415 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.