Over the last 4 matches xGA per match moved from 1.05 to 2.34 (+123%); the previous-season baseline is 1.36; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, expected goals conceded per game moved 1.05 → 2.34. Shots faced per game moved 8.25 → 18.67; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -1.33 per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per game | 1.05 | 2.34 | +1.29 | +122.8% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.75 | -1.25 | -0.5 | -66.7% |
| Expected points per game | 1.78 | 1.09 | -0.69 | -38.6% |
| Points per game | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | -33.3% |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.0 | 2.5 | +0.5 | +25.0% |
| xG per game | 1.59 | 1.47 | -0.12 | -7.5% |
| Goals per game | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 10.25 → 11.67; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.22 goals per game.
|
10.25 → 11.67
shots per game
|
+13.8% | +0.22 | 55% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.15 → 0.14; at the current shot volume this adds -0.16 goals per game.
|
0.15 → 0.14
expected goals per shot
|
-8.8% | -0.16 | 40% |
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.34 → -0.32; finishing adds +0.02 goals per game.
|
-0.34 → -0.32
goals above expected per game
|
+6.6% | +0.02 | 6% |
Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 8.25 → 18.67; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -1.33 per game.
|
8.25 → 18.67
shots faced per game
|
+126.3% | -1.33 | 59% |
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.95 → -0.33; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +0.62 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.06, opponent on-target quality +0.56.
|
-0.95 → -0.33
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+65.5% | +0.62 | 28% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.13 → 0.14; at the current volume this changes goal difference by -0.29 per game.
|
0.13 → 0.14
expected goals per shot faced
|
+12.3% | -0.29 | 13% |
Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for -928% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.29 | 1.4 | +1.11 | +383.7% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
3.25 | 8.75 | +5.5 | +169.2% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is a harder schedule. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
-0.29 | -0.09 | +0.21 | +70.7% |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.59 | 0.26 | -0.33 | -55.5% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.86 | 0.65 | -0.21 | -24.3% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | -20.0% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
51.0 | 41.33 | -9.67 | -19.0% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
4.0 | 4.75 | +0.75 | +18.8% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
22.75 | 25.25 | +2.5 | +11.0% |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 2.34 | 1.05 | +123% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 1.47 | 1.59 | -8% |
| Expected points per game | 1.09 | 1.78 | -39% |
| Points per game | 1.0 | 1.5 | -33% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.66 xG created this season, versus 1.09 in the previous 4; a step up in opposition quality may be a factor.
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (313 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.