Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 1.75 (+250%); the previous-season baseline is 1.08; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, points per game moved 0.50 → 1.75; goal difference per game -1.25 → 0.75. Goals minus expected goals moved -1.02 → +0.67; finishing adds +1.70 goals per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.5 | 1.75 | +1.25 | +250.0% |
| Goal difference per game | -1.25 | 0.75 | +2.0 | +160.0% |
| Expected points per game | 1.02 | 1.65 | +0.63 | +61.5% |
| xGA per game | 1.87 | 1.05 | -0.83 | -44.1% |
| xG per game | 1.02 | 1.43 | +0.4 | +39.3% |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| Goals per game | 0.0 | 2.0 | +2.0 | — |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -1.02 → +0.67; finishing adds +1.70 goals per game.
|
-1.02 → 0.67
goals above expected per game
|
+165.5% | +1.7 | 85% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.08 → 0.09; at the current shot volume this adds +0.18 goals per game.
|
0.08 → 0.09
expected goals per shot
|
+15.4% | +0.18 | 9% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 12.75 → 14.33; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.13 goals per game.
|
12.75 → 14.33
shots per game
|
+12.4% | +0.13 | 6% |
Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved +0.62 → +0.16; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add -0.46 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping -0.16, opponent on-target quality -0.30.
|
0.62 → 0.16
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
-74.6% | -0.46 | 31% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.12 → 0.08; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.48 per game.
|
0.12 → 0.08
expected goals per shot faced
|
-37.0% | +0.48 | 32% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 15.25 → 10.67; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.56 per game.
|
15.25 → 10.67
shots faced per game
|
-30.1% | +0.56 | 37% |
Decomposition uses 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
0.09 | -0.34 | -0.43 | -471.7% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.56 | 0.94 | +0.39 | +69.8% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for -43% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.3 | 0.13 | -0.17 | -56.7% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
6.0 | 8.0 | +2.0 | +33.3% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
8.75 | 7.5 | -1.25 | -14.3% |
|
Sprints
From the Premier League physical feed only.
|
102.75 | 117.33 | +14.58 | +14.2% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: less aggressive pressing.
|
25.0 | 27.75 | +2.75 | +11.0% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
1.75 | 1.67 | -0.08 | -4.7% |
|
Distance covered
From the Premier League physical feed only.
|
110.77 | 115.79 | +5.02 | +4.5% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
59.75 | 61.33 | +1.58 | +2.6% |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.33 | +0.33 | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data cover 3/4 current and 4/4 comparison matches; running is context only and did not decide the main factor.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.75 | 0.5 | +250% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 1.05 | 1.87 | -44% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 1.05 | 1.68 | -38% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 7.5 | 8.75 | -14% |
| Goals per match | 2.0 | 0.0 | +0% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.36 xG created this season, versus 1.64 in the previous 4; a softer schedule may be a factor.
- 2.00 goals scored against 1.43 expected over the last 4 (difference +0.57).
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (464 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.