Over the last 5 matches xG per match moved from 0.75 to 1.57 (+110%); the previous-season baseline is 1.42; 5 of 5 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 5 matches, expected goals per game moved 0.75 → 1.57. Expected goals per shot moved 0.08 → 0.13; at the current shot volume this adds +0.56 goals per game.
Current season: last 5 vs previous 5; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals per game | 0.4 | 1.2 | +0.8 | +200.0% |
| xG per game | 0.75 | 1.57 | +0.82 | +110.1% |
| Expected points per game | 0.78 | 1.5 | +0.72 | +93.3% |
| Goal difference per game | -1.6 | -0.2 | +1.4 | +87.5% |
| Points per game | 0.6 | 1.0 | +0.4 | +66.7% |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.0 | 1.4 | -0.6 | -30.0% |
| xGA per game | 1.96 | 1.41 | -0.56 | -28.4% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.08 → 0.13; at the current shot volume this adds +0.56 goals per game.
|
0.08 → 0.13
expected goals per shot
|
+55.9% | +0.56 | 66% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 9.20 → 12.40; at last window's output per shot this adds +0.26 goals per game.
|
9.2 → 12.4
shots per game
|
+34.8% | +0.26 | 31% |
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.35 → -0.37; finishing adds -0.02 goals per game.
|
-0.35 → -0.37
goals above expected per game
|
-7.0% | -0.03 | 3% |
Decomposition uses 5/5 current and 5/5 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.04 → +0.01; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +0.04 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.39, opponent on-target quality -0.34.
|
-0.04 → 0.01
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+113.5% | +0.04 | 5% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.12 → 0.08; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +0.73 per game.
|
0.12 → 0.08
expected goals per shot faced
|
-34.2% | +0.73 | 77% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 15.80 → 17.20; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by -0.17 per game.
|
15.8 → 17.2
shots faced per game
|
+8.9% | -0.17 | 18% |
Decomposition uses 5/5 current and 5/5 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
1.0 | 2.6 | +1.6 | +160.0% |
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 5/5 vs 5/5.
|
0.49 | -0.1 | -0.59 | -120.4% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
2.8 | 6.0 | +3.2 | +114.3% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +9% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.1 | 0.17 | +0.07 | +72.4% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.73 | 1.03 | +0.29 | +40.3% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
10.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 | -20.0% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
47.0 | 41.2 | -5.8 | -12.3% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: little change in pressing.
|
16.4 | 17.4 | +1.0 | +6.1% |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.2 | +0.2 | — |
|
Penalty threat
Penalties can swing short windows; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.16 | +0.16 | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 1.57 | 0.75 | +110% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xGA per match | 1.41 | 1.96 | -28% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 1.26 | 1.96 | -36% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 8.0 | 10.0 | -20% |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 2.0 | -30% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 5 matches average 1.62 xG created this season, versus 1.94 in the previous 5; a softer schedule may be a factor.
- 1.20 goals scored against 1.57 expected over the last 5 (difference -0.37).
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (467 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.