Aston Villa vs Fulham: what the data says
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Fulham have the stronger underlying attack/defence, but Aston Villa have taken more points recently.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Aston Villa +0.16, Fulham +0.38.
- Points per game over the last five: Aston Villa 1.60, Fulham 1.00, opposite to the underlying signal.
- Attack: Aston Villa xG per match 1.67, 13.8 shots, 2.5 big chances created; Fulham xG per match 1.92, 15.6 shots, 2.6 big chances created. Aston Villa have the better conversion (1.40 vs 1.00).
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Aston Villa 1.51, Fulham 1.53; shots on target faced 7.8 vs 8.4, big chances faced 2.5 vs 2.8.
- Running: Aston Villa 112.0 km, Fulham 118.7 km; sprints 118 vs 100.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Points per game
1.60
vs 1.00
· Edge 37.5%
Goals per match
1.40
vs 1.00
· Edge 28.6%
Sprints per match
118
vs 100
· Edge 15.4%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
xG per match
1.92
vs 1.67
· Edge 12.8%
Shots per match
15.6
vs 13.8
· Edge 11.9%
Shots faced per match
14.0
vs 15.8
· Edge 11.1%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Aston Villa
|
Metric |
Fulham
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 1.60 | Points per game | 1.00 |
| 1.40 | Goals per match | 1.00 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded per match | 1.20 |
| 1.55 | Expected points per game | 1.62 |
| Attack | ||
| 1.67 | xG per match | 1.92 |
| 13.8 | Shots per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 15.6 |
| 9.2 | Shots on target per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 9.6 |
| 2.5 | Big chances created per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 2.6 |
| 57.5% | Possession 4 / 5 matches with data | 55.6% |
| 8.4 | Deep completions per match | 12.6 |
| Defence | ||
| 1.51 | xGA per match | 1.53 |
| 15.8 | Shots faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 14.0 |
| 7.8 | Shots on target faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 8.4 |
| 2.5 | Big chances faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 2.8 |
| 8.0 | Deep completions allowed per match | 6.2 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| 112.0 km | Distance covered per match (km) 4 / 5 matches with data | 118.7 km |
| 118 | Sprints per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 100 |
| 16.2 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 17.6 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Aston Villa 7
- Aaron Wan-Bissaka Injury Expected back mid November 2026
- Amadou Onana Injury Expected back mid April 2027
- George Hemmings Injury Doubtful
- Ian Maatsen Injury Doubtful
- Johan Manzambi Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Matteo Ruggeri Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Modou Kéba Cissé Injury Back in training
Fulham 1
- Hugo Larsson Injury Doubtful
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.