Chelsea vs Manchester United: what the data says
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Manchester United have the stronger underlying attack/defence, but Chelsea have taken more points recently.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Chelsea -0.77, Manchester United -0.29.
- Points per game over the last five: Chelsea 1.40, Manchester United 0.80, opposite to the underlying signal.
- Attack: Chelsea xG per match 1.10, 13.0 shots, 1.6 big chances created; Manchester United xG per match 1.18, 17.0 shots, 1.4 big chances created. Chelsea have the better conversion (2.00 vs 1.00).
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Chelsea 1.87, Manchester United 1.47; shots on target faced 9.0 vs 8.0, big chances faced 3.4 vs 2.4.
- Running: Chelsea 112.3 km, Manchester United 111.1 km; sprints 113 vs 98.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Goals per match
2.00
vs 1.00
· Edge 50.0%
Points per game
1.40
vs 0.80
· Edge 42.9%
Sprints per match
113
vs 98
· Edge 13.1%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Big chances faced per match
2.4
vs 3.4
· Edge 29.4%
Goals conceded per match
1.20
vs 1.60
· Edge 25.0%
Shots per match
17.0
vs 13.0
· Edge 23.5%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Chelsea
|
Metric |
Manchester United
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 1.40 | Points per game | 0.80 |
| 2.00 | Goals per match | 1.00 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded per match | 1.20 |
| 0.94 | Expected points per game | 1.12 |
| Attack | ||
| 1.10 | xG per match | 1.18 |
| 13.0 | Shots per match | 17.0 |
| 8.8 | Shots on target per match | 10.4 |
| 1.6 | Big chances created per match | 1.4 |
| 55.2% | Possession | 51.4% |
| 7.4 | Deep completions per match | 9.2 |
| Defence | ||
| 1.87 | xGA per match | 1.47 |
| 11.6 | Shots faced per match | 12.0 |
| 9.0 | Shots on target faced per match | 8.0 |
| 3.4 | Big chances faced per match | 2.4 |
| 7.0 | Deep completions allowed per match | 5.6 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| 112.3 km | Distance covered per match (km) | 111.1 km |
| 113 | Sprints per match | 98 |
| 19.4 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 23.2 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Chelsea 6
- Emiliano Martínez Injury Expected back early November 2026
- Emmanuel Emegha Injury Doubtful
- Jamie Gittens Injury Expected back in about a week
- Malo Gusto Injury Doubtful
- Pep Chavarría Injury Doubtful
- Reece James Injury Expected back mid January 2027
Manchester United 8
- Ayden Heaven Injury Expected back early November 2026
- Benjamin Sesko Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Kobbie Mainoo Injury Expected back in about a week
- Lisandro Martínez Injury Expected back in about a week
- Luke Shaw Injury Expected return: A few days
- Manuel Ugarte Injury Expected back early April 2027
- Marcus Rashford Injury Expected back mid November 2026
- Patrick Dorgu Injury Expected back late October 2026
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.