Manchester City vs Brighton: what the data says
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Brighton have the stronger underlying attack/defence, but Manchester City have taken more points recently.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Manchester City +0.78, Brighton +0.99.
- Points per game over the last five: Manchester City 3.00, Brighton 2.60, opposite to the underlying signal.
- Attack: Manchester City xG per match 2.32, 14.2 shots, 3.4 big chances created; Brighton xG per match 2.20, 18.0 shots, 4.0 big chances created. Brighton have the better conversion (3.20 vs 2.60).
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Manchester City 1.53, Brighton 1.20; shots on target faced 7.6 vs 6.8, big chances faced 3.0 vs 2.0.
- Running: Manchester City 110.9 km, Brighton 113.5 km; sprints 94 vs 100.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Points per game
3.00
vs 2.60
· Edge 13.3%
xG per match
2.32
vs 2.20
· Edge 5.2%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Goals conceded per match
0.20
vs 1.00
· Edge 80.0%
Big chances faced per match
2.0
vs 3.0
· Edge 33.3%
xGA per match
1.20
vs 1.53
· Edge 21.6%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Manchester City
|
Metric |
Brighton
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 3.00 | Points per game | 2.60 |
| 2.60 | Goals per match | 3.20 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per match | 0.20 |
| 1.89 | Expected points per game | 2.10 |
| Attack | ||
| 2.32 | xG per match | 2.20 |
| 14.2 | Shots per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 18.0 |
| 9.2 | Shots on target per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 10.8 |
| 3.4 | Big chances created per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 4.0 |
| 62.6% | Possession 5 / 4 matches with data | 58.0% |
| 8.6 | Deep completions per match | 4.6 |
| Defence | ||
| 1.53 | xGA per match | 1.20 |
| 13.2 | Shots faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 10.5 |
| 7.6 | Shots on target faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 6.8 |
| 3.0 | Big chances faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 2.0 |
| 5.6 | Deep completions allowed per match | 6.8 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| 110.9 km | Distance covered per match (km) 5 / 4 matches with data | 113.5 km |
| 94 | Sprints per match 5 / 4 matches with data | 100 |
| 19.0 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 25.8 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Manchester City 4
- Antoine Semenyo Injury Expected back mid December 2026
- Mateo Kovacic Injury Doubtful
- Matheus Nunes Injury Doubtful
- Nico O'Reilly Injury Doubtful
Brighton 7
- Evan Ferguson Injury Expected back mid October 2026
- Femi Azeez Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Kaoru Mitoma Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Mats Wieffer Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Stefanos Tzimas Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Yankuba Minteh Injury Expected back mid November 2026
- Zadok Yohanna Injury Expected back late October 2026
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.