Barcelona vs Real Madrid: what the data says
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Barcelona lead in both underlying performance and recent points.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Barcelona +2.66, Real Madrid +0.81.
- Points per game over the last five: Barcelona 3.00, Real Madrid 2.40.
- Attack: Barcelona xG per match 3.92, 20.8 shots, 6.5 big chances created; Real Madrid xG per match 2.11, 15.6 shots, 3.0 big chances created.
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Barcelona 1.26, Real Madrid 1.30; shots on target faced 5.5 vs 9.4, big chances faced 2.8 vs 1.6.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
Big chances created per match
6.5
vs 3.0
· Edge 53.8%
Shots faced per match
7.2
vs 14.8
· Edge 51.0%
xG per match
3.92
vs 2.11
· Edge 46.2%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Big chances faced per match
1.6
vs 2.8
· Edge 41.8%
Goals conceded per match
1.20
vs 1.40
· Edge 14.3%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Barcelona
|
Metric |
Real Madrid
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 3.00 | Points per game | 2.40 |
| 4.40 | Goals per match | 2.60 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per match | 1.20 |
| 2.51 | Expected points per game | 1.92 |
| Attack | ||
| 3.92 | xG per match | 2.11 |
| 20.8 | Shots per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 15.6 |
| 13.2 | Shots on target per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 9.2 |
| 6.5 | Big chances created per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 3.0 |
| 74.0% | Possession 4 / 5 matches with data | 50.0% |
| 11.2 | Deep completions per match | 12.4 |
| Defence | ||
| 1.26 | xGA per match | 1.30 |
| 7.2 | Shots faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 14.8 |
| 5.5 | Shots on target faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 9.4 |
| 2.8 | Big chances faced per match 4 / 5 matches with data | 1.6 |
| 3.0 | Deep completions allowed per match | 8.0 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| — | Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| — | Sprints per match 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| 24.6 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 19.6 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Barcelona 5
- Andreas Christensen Injury Expected back early November 2026
- Dani Olmo Injury Expected back late November 2026
- Eric García Injury Expected back mid November 2026
- Jules Koundé Injury Expected back early November 2026
- Roony Bardghji Injury Expected back late February 2027
Real Madrid 3
- Ferland Mendy Injury Back in training
- Raúl Asencio Injury Expected back early January 2027
- Rodrygo Injury Expected back late December 2026
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.