Paderborn vs Hamburger SV

Paderborn vs Hamburger SV: what the data says

Match data Moderate evidence Bundesliga Insight date · 2026-10-23 2026-10-24 ~ 2026-10-24

What is worth noting before kickoff?

What this page answers

A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.

The takeaway

The two sides are close at the underlying level; the differences sit in specific phases.

  • Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Paderborn -1.08, Hamburger SV -1.09.
  • Points per game over the last five: Paderborn 0.80, Hamburger SV 1.80.
  • Attack: Paderborn xG per match 1.17, 14.4 shots, 2.0 big chances created; Hamburger SV xG per match 1.20, 12.0 shots, 1.8 big chances created.
  • Defence: expected goals conceded per match Paderborn 2.25, Hamburger SV 2.29; shots on target faced 13.2 vs 11.0, big chances faced 4.4 vs 4.2.

Each team's clearest edge

Home edge

Paderborn

Goals conceded per match 1.80 vs 2.60 · Edge 30.8%
Shots per match 14.4 vs 12.0 · Edge 16.7%
Shots on target per match 7.8 vs 6.5 · Edge 16.7%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Away edge

Hamburger SV

Points per game 1.80 vs 0.80 · Edge 55.6%
Goals per match 1.20 vs 1.00 · Edge 16.7%
Shots on target faced per match 11.0 vs 13.2 · Edge 16.7%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Head-to-head data

Paderborn Metric Hamburger SV
Results
0.80 Points per game 1.80
1.00 Goals per match 1.20
1.80 Goals conceded per match 2.60
0.78 Expected points per game 0.85
Attack
1.17 xG per match 1.20
14.4 Shots per match 5 / 4 matches with data 12.0
7.8 Shots on target per match 5 / 4 matches with data 6.5
2.0 Big chances created per match 5 / 4 matches with data 1.8
45.8% Possession 5 / 4 matches with data 40.2%
6.6 Deep completions per match 3.4
Defence
2.25 xGA per match 2.29
17.8 Shots faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data 19.2
13.2 Shots on target faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data 11.0
4.4 Big chances faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data 4.2
13.6 Deep completions allowed per match 10.6
Running & pressing
— Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 0 matches with data —
— Sprints per match 0 / 0 matches with data —
22.8 Pressing value (lower is stronger) 18.4

Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.

Injuries & absences

Paderborn 5

Snapshot · 2026-10-22

  • Marcel Hoffmeier Injury Expected return: A few weeks
  • Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant Injury Expected back late October 2026
  • Oliver Batista Meier Injury Expected back mid November 2026
  • Sebastian Klaas Injury Expected back late October 2026
  • Timur Gayret Injury Expected back early January 2027

Hamburger SV 4

Snapshot · 2026-10-22

  • Albert Sambi Lokonga Injury Doubtful
  • Bakery Jatta Injury Expected back in about 1-2 weeks
  • Nicolai Remberg Injury Expected back late June 2027
  • Patson Daka Injury Expected return: A few weeks

Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.

Limitations

Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).

  • Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.