Marseille vs Le Havre: what the data says

Match data Moderate evidence Ligue 1 Insight date · 2026-10-23 2026-10-25 ~ 2026-10-25

What is worth noting before kickoff?

What this page answers

A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.

The takeaway

Le Havre have the stronger underlying attack/defence, but Marseille have taken more points recently.

  • Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Marseille -0.83, Le Havre -0.47.
  • Points per game over the last five: Marseille 1.20, Le Havre 0.20, opposite to the underlying signal.
  • Attack: Marseille xG per match 1.85, 13.0 shots, 3.4 big chances created; Le Havre xG per match 1.45, 16.2 shots, 1.8 big chances created.
  • Defence: expected goals conceded per match Marseille 2.68, Le Havre 1.92; shots on target faced 11.4 vs 6.2, big chances faced 4.0 vs 2.5.

Each team's clearest edge

Home edge
Points per game 1.20 vs 0.20 · Edge 83.3%
Goals per match 2.00 vs 0.80 · Edge 60.0%
Big chances created per match 3.4 vs 1.8 · Edge 48.5%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Away edge
Shots on target faced per match 6.2 vs 11.4 · Edge 45.2%
Shots faced per match 11.5 vs 19.0 · Edge 39.5%
Big chances faced per match 2.5 vs 4.0 · Edge 37.5%

Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.

Head-to-head data

Marseille Metric Le Havre
Results
1.20 Points per game 0.20
2.00 Goals per match 0.80
1.60 Goals conceded per match 1.80
1.01 Expected points per game 1.06
Attack
1.85 xG per match 1.45
13.0 Shots per match 5 / 4 matches with data 16.2
7.8 Shots on target per match 5 / 4 matches with data 8.8
3.4 Big chances created per match 5 / 4 matches with data 1.8
54.6% Possession 5 / 4 matches with data 51.8%
8.2 Deep completions per match 6.6
Defence
2.68 xGA per match 1.92
19.0 Shots faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data 11.5
11.4 Shots on target faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data 6.2
4.0 Big chances faced per match 5 / 4 matches with data 2.5
10.0 Deep completions allowed per match 4.4
Running & pressing
— Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 0 matches with data —
— Sprints per match 0 / 0 matches with data —
22.8 Pressing value (lower is stronger) 26.6

Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.

Injuries & absences

Marseille 2

Snapshot · 2026-10-22

  • Derek Cornelius Injury Expected back early January 2027
  • Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Injury Doubtful

Le Havre 5

Snapshot · 2026-10-22

  • Elias Jelert Injury Expected back late October 2026
  • Felix Mambimbi Injury Expected back late October 2026
  • Lionel Mpasi-Nzau Injury Expected back late October 2026
  • Stephan Zagadou Injury Expected back early January 2027
  • Timothée Pembélé Injury Expected back late October 2026

Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.

Limitations

Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).

  • Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.